Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. Election night is going to be information overload. These bellwether counties mirror close NC race for president There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. Ron Elving . In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. In communities . Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. . The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. Really stop reading. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. But it's also not unprecedented. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now - USAPP Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Seriously. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Until this year. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? | FiveThirtyEight Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. (i.e. A Guide To The Election 'Guides' - NPR.org This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. What, if anything, did we miss? It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. Fact check: Trump-backed Michigan congressional candidate John - CNN Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election.
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