Rain for many on Saturday but becoming warm in south-east England. Get The 7 DMV newsletter in your inbox every weekday morning. I will just add that I only focused on one impact and one particular region (Southwest U.S. precipitation), but it would be interesting to do a more comprehensive analysis of possible distinctions between La Nina flavors in the climate model simulations. The most important ingredients for snowfall are the air being cold enough and a supply of moisture. Everything I read details how little we understand and have modeled such an occurrence- a gigantic and long-lasting (it will take years for the extra water vapor to dissipate) change to something that we think of (and model) as utterly constant and stable. That doesnt mean that the different flavors of La Nia cannot be important for Southwest U.S. precipitation, and its worth trying to better understand the simulated La Nia precipitation variations. This video and related map images can also be accessed online at www.climate.gov/winter2022-23. Even the wettest December-January event before this year, 1955/56, was drier-than-average in February-March, demonstrating that a wet early winter doesnt necessarily mean a wet late winter. We'll let you know if/when he does! 7 day. The 2022-2023 Farmers' Almanac will be available starting Aug. 15, offering 16 months of . But we can still see an area of more snowfall potential in the Southeast, which can be a single large event. The southeastern United States snowfall is perhaps an unlikely scenario at first, but just one intense cold outbreak could bring some snowfall further far into the south. Overall we still see less snowfall than normal for the first Winter month. The MJO certainly can interfere with ENSO, particularly during development of ENSO through the MJO influence on tropical westerly wind bursts. So what exactly does this mean for the winter weather patterns and snowfall potential? Over North America, most of the country has below-average snow accumulation, except for the northwestern United States, upper Midwest, and southwestern Canada. The December snowfall forecast shows some areas with more snowfall over northern, western, and central parts. One of the main points of this post is that it's difficult to rule out the role of chaotic atmospheric variability that is unrelated to the underlying sea surface temperatures when it comes to unusual Southwest U.S. precipitation. In turn, the NAO, PNA and AO combinations--some of which can be reasonably forecast on intraseasonal scales--demonstrate that some of our wettest winters can come in a La Nina year. And we can expect plenty of it this winter, according to the Farmers' Almanac, which recently released its 2022-23 Extended Weather Forecast. A larger deficit can be seen over northern Europe and the Alps. Who we are, what we do and organisational news. Also, we still seem to be transitioning out of La Nina, which may also have some impact. The Farmers Almanac says temperatures in the Southeast and Northeast should become milder in February, though. That forecast extends to some popular California ski resorts. Pacific Southwest Another mild winter is expected this year, Goble said. And did tropical sea surface temperatures contribute? This fits the long term trend across our area during a La Nia phase of slightly above normal temperatures during the . This will be followed by the Quadrantid Meteor Shower . Did La Nia drench the Southwest United States in early winter 2022/23 Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Fri, 02/24/2023 - 16:25, In reply to Stratospheric warming due to Tonga volcano by Ed Ratledge. The jet stream is a large and powerful stream of air (wind) at around 8-11km (5-7mi) altitude. The December snowfall forecast shows the snowfall increase over the northwestern United States. The storied old journal's extended weather forecast predicts "plenty of snow, rain and mush as well as some record-breaking cold temperatures! Its interesting to note that the La Nia dry signal over the Southwest U.S. appears to be a little more robust in February-March than December-January, as 15 of the 21 events classified as La Nia in December-February had drier-than-average conditions in February-March. Winter storm conditions forecast from Montana to Michigan; California ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. More snow? Here's Michigan's winter 2022-2023 outlook Just wanted to Note that not all of the Southwest is receiving Robust Moisture. That tends to redirect the polar jet stream down over the northern United States, with the cold air following. For example, we can see a list of teleconnection patterns monitored by CPC, and I believe that only the PNA and TNH have a strong connection to ENSO among that list. The new forecast, issued Aug.18, 2022, is pegged on the thought that La Nia is expected to continue through this winter before fading to near normal water temperatures next spring. So, that gets to the main point of the post. - 29 US states are under winter weather alerts as people brace for a winter storm expected to bring heavy snow . We can also track snowfall potential on normal temperature and precipitation Winter forecasts. Since the latest forecast data was released in mid-late November, we now also have the March data included, so we can look at some early Spring snowfall potential. NOAA's 2022-2023 Winter Forecast | OpenSnow Starting with the seasonal average for Europe, we can see another weak snowfall forecast similar to the ECMWF. Also, if you have seen this article in the Google App (Discover) feed, click the like button () there to see more of our forecasts and our latest articles on weather and nature in general. For this analysis, I am using simulations of monthly climate from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model called SPEAR, the same model that contributes seasonal forecasts to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), but here the experiment is designed to analyze the climate effects of the observed sea surface temperature evolution from 1951-2020 (4). Note that even the most scientifically advanced seasonal outlooks cannot pinpoint what the weather will be in a particular place at a particular time this far in advance. Higher temperatures are forecast for the West; WeatherBell projects temperatures 1 to 3 degrees above normal in the Southwest. Thanks, Tom. AccuWeathers official 2022-2023 U.S. winter forecast is rather bleak for snow lovers. Story of winter 2022/23. Such heavy precipitation was unexpected prior to the season in a region afflicted with a multi-year severe drought, especially given that we are in the third consecutive winter of La Nia. Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 08:32, Tucson Intl Airport had 1.0 inches of snow today (March 2) bringing season total to 1.5 inches. Along the Interstate 95 corridor, which often is the rain-snow line for major storms, the Farmers Almanac suggests more snow than rain. It's likely to be drier further north apart from occasional wintry showers, while rain and strong winds are more likely in the south, with a lower risk of snow at times. The official NOAA Temperature outlook points: The official precipitation forecast is also quite similar to the latest model forecasts. London blanketed in 5 inches of snow as capital suffers travel chaos, The Great Dying: ancient mass extinction event is warning for society, Study reveals why mosquitos are attracted to some people more than others. I first averaged the 30 simulations for each of the 21 La Nia winters, giving me 21 precipitation outcomes. The 2022-2023 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The pattern seems to be under the influence of a high-pressure system, as the forecast does not permit a lot of large-scale snowfall scenarios and snow accumulation. Submitted by emily.becker on Thu, 02/23/2023 - 17:12, In reply to sampling differences by John N-G. That's a good question! 2022-2023 California and Southwest Weather Thread . From the abundance of acorns in the fall to the bushiness of squirrel tails, there are many fanciful forecasting techniques have been used over the years as a means to glean a glimpse of what the weather will be like in the upcoming winter. The forecast, which actually was released earlier than usual this year amid "growing concern over the rising costs of heating oil," warns that this winter will have people across much of the country "shaking, shivering, and shoveling." Farmers' Almanac's winter weather forecast predicts plenty of snow It was also noticeable that most mediterranean-like climates in both ( North and South) hemispheres had shown early signals of drought in December-January Projections from last year , the coupling of a negative ENSO and negative PDO with Negative IOD brings limited number of Lanina years with such combined wet-dry phases during a particular ENSO ( cold or warm ) . Farmers' Almanac predicting extreme winter forecast for - Azfamily However, December may put the brakes on this, with a strong signal for this month to be much cooler than average. 10 day. With snow accumulation up to 88 inches, and entire summers with temperatures below freezing, the northern hemisphere was rattled with Satan's snow. New for the 2023 edition are weather summaries and maps for all four seasons in 2023. Again, you can see more snowfall than normal, covering a large area from western Canada down into the northwestern United States and the far upper Midwest. August 2022 U.S. Climate Outlook: a wet Southwest Monsoon and a hot The remainder of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal total precipitation. We have also produced an image that shows the snowfall forecast change compared to the forecast from the previous month. Conditions will be particularly cold through the middle of the month, with widespread frosts and a risk of wintry showers, even to low levels in some cases. As always, we start with the ECMWF, the most often used and highly regarded seasonal forecasting system. The precipitation anomalies are divided into 10 evenly spaced bins, and the number of La Nia events is totaled for each bin. The Met Office adds: What about the moisture? First is the ECMWF, and then it is the UKMO. 2022-2024 "Arctic Hell" Storm - Hypothetical Disasters Wiki As you can never trust a single forecast model, we always tend to use the UKMO long-range forecasting system along the ECMWF. The lowest temperatures are expected in the Ohio Valley into the Upper Midwest, which are forecast to be 1 to 3 degrees below normal.